Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Big Gamers

As we get nearer to the end of the 'now' arduous Super 15 season, it's no doubt time to start looking at the All Black squad. However, rather than look at the team overall, I want to look at the 'Big Game' players within the squad - those who you know will rise to the challenge in the heat of the battle, those who you know can turn it on when it's needed the most, those who won't fret under pressure and lead the team through any uncertain moments and those who will carry and demonstrate the belief that the team can pull through to win a tight match - in world cup year this would seem most pertinent.

The Players

Ritchie McCaw heads the list. Captain fantastic has proved beyond unwavering doubt time and time again that he is not only the most important player in the team but also one of the finest leaders in world sport today (and arguably in history). If he wins the RWC he will surely cement his name among the greats of world sport

Dan Carter. Funnily enough, after signing his 4 year contract is showing some very fine form - form that looks close to the Carter that slayed the Lions in 2005. This can only be good for the ABs in that in 2007 he wasn't fully up to scratch.

Keven Mealamu. Without a doubt NZs no 1 hooker. Has proven in the last year that he is a cornerstone of the All Blacks and like McCaw, has seen 2 world cups - he now has the experience and mindset to lift when needed and his current play is nothing short of dynamic.

Kieran Read - the former counties man now the world's best no.8 is showing a real  'follow me' persona, a trait that may eventually make him the future AB captain.

Brad Thorn - doesn't back down to no-one. A proven winner with the Broncos, Queensland and Australian League - he knows what a big occasion is and he knows how to win a big occasion.

Ma Nonu - fairly contentious here but the truth is that Ma excels in the big games. Last year he proved it in the South African game but the most telling was the Welsh test. SBW (who to be fair is learning and on the rise)looked out of sorts in what can only be described as a messy game and one without structure - something Ma excels in. He came on and there was a huge difference straight away.

Cowan - tough, hard nosed, ferociously competitive - enough said.

Dagg - as Wayne Smith has commented, Dagg is built for the big stuff.

Whose Missing?

SBW - can't be classified here - he hasn't played a big one.

Mils - contentious yes, because Mils IS A big game player. However so is Zinzan Brooke. Would I put him in - no, because he's not up to it - just like Mils. A sad fact but we need to move on, the likes of Beale and O'Connor are running around this guy

The Wingers - we have many, Hosea, Toeava, Guildford, Jane, Siti etc but they are all too new

Centres - too close to pick. Both Kahui and Smith can do the job - it depends what the selectors do. I'd suggest they'll run SBW and Kahui together in July and see what happens....

What That Means for The Coaches

Obviously they need to pick the big game players - and they will.  The question is, who will they pick to support. And this is where the 'quality measure' (think of it like a heat thermometer) needs to be applied. What that is is simply looking at a team of 15 and adding or subtracting a player and establishing what that does to the total quality mix of the team. Obviously a 'positive' effect is preferable but that is not always possible - especially when a player retires. A good example is Frank Bunce. When he retired, it had a negative effect on the total quality of the team (not just his position) and so the 'quality measure' was negative. It wasn't until Tana came along that this started to level out. On the other hand, the most preferable situation is when a 'newbee' ousts the incumbent because they are better - think Christina Cullen, think Read at no.8. Both of these players affected the 'quality measure' in a positive manner.

So what that means, is that yes, the big gamers will be picked but it's the 'quality measure' that is all important - the total make-up of the team. And what that means is that if new blood is introduced this year, it sure as hell has to be better and that I"ll leave to the selectors - too hard for me.

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