NZ is in good shape to kick on in the All Black tests and at this stage better than both Australia and South Africa. Why is that? The Reds look like a team capable of winning and the Stormers won't be beaten easily at home. However, to put it simply, we are down to 4 teams and 2 of those are NZ teams. One of those, Canterbury, really have done an amazing job to be still in the race despite having to play every match on the road - really this is something that should be applauded.
Because of this, NZ has a greater footprint in the finals and this is a measure of the how well each nation's teams have performed and of course provides greater performance options to the All Black coaches. Luke Braid is one of these, outstanding of late, a former U20 world player of the year and despite all the talk about Todd, if injuries occur to Thompson or Messam, could be considered a bolter, especially with his blind-side experience.
So who will win? Going by this seasons performances, home ground advantage, (and not to be discounted) great coaching, the Reds certainly look the most comfortable. They weren't really troubled by the Blues earlier in the season and would seem to be in a good position to continues this if...Toeava doesn't play. But if he does, then the Blues have a great chance to take this one. Toeava has been one of the stand-outs this year and since his injury, his presence has been missed. Such has been his influence this year, his place in the All Blacks is certain and he may even find himself starting in the Tri Nations now that Dagg has been injured and Mils looks to be beyond his best - selected for the All Black camp for his experience but the irony is that it may be he who finds himself on the bench because of his versatility. Expect to see Dagg back for the World Cup though and depending on Toeava's performances in the Tri-Nations, either him or Mils back starting.
As for the Stormers, McCaw is back. However, will he be fresh enough. They may start Todd for this game and bring the skipper on. In terms of the game - this is a real challenge. The Crusaders have the team but will they have the petrol left to get across the line. I suspect yes but by less than 10 points.
The final then on a possibility scale could be the 2 NZ sides but on a probability scale, more likely to be The Reds vs The Crusaders. And this is where I disagree with Robbie Deans who in my opinion did himself a disservice this week. He championed the Reds over his beloved Crusaders which seems a little spurious. Yes on paper the Reds have a great chance as mentioned above but the Crusaders have the experience, the team to win and the hurt of a city to do it. A lot will come down to the intensity of next weekends matches.
Which leads us to the new Super 15 which has been nothing short of laborious. Coupled with a 'false' format, and the intention to prolong the series next year, this means fans will be turning off in droves. Such a format is simply too boring, too long and the fact that teams have to play teams twice in their own conferences doesn't spice up anything. It provides a false scale and in some respects gives the Australian sides a hand up as the don't need to play all of the NZ sides. It's the equivalent to a warm flat coke.
The stooges that came up with the new structure over a couple of the sponsors product need to have a re- think and quickl. There's no need for a 'wait and see' approach - everyone knows that this format is a disaster. Go back to a shorter season, cut the conference rubbish and get every team to play each other. Sure that doesn't guarantee a team from every country in the top 6 and a bigger pay out out but lets face it, that's not a true reflection anyway, I'm bored just thinking about it.
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