NZ is in good shape to kick on in the All Black tests and at this stage better than both Australia and South Africa. Why is that? The Reds look like a team capable of winning and the Stormers won't be beaten easily at home. However, to put it simply, we are down to 4 teams and 2 of those are NZ teams. One of those, Canterbury, really have done an amazing job to be still in the race despite having to play every match on the road - really this is something that should be applauded.
Because of this, NZ has a greater footprint in the finals and this is a measure of the how well each nation's teams have performed and of course provides greater performance options to the All Black coaches. Luke Braid is one of these, outstanding of late, a former U20 world player of the year and despite all the talk about Todd, if injuries occur to Thompson or Messam, could be considered a bolter, especially with his blind-side experience.
So who will win? Going by this seasons performances, home ground advantage, (and not to be discounted) great coaching, the Reds certainly look the most comfortable. They weren't really troubled by the Blues earlier in the season and would seem to be in a good position to continues this if...Toeava doesn't play. But if he does, then the Blues have a great chance to take this one. Toeava has been one of the stand-outs this year and since his injury, his presence has been missed. Such has been his influence this year, his place in the All Blacks is certain and he may even find himself starting in the Tri Nations now that Dagg has been injured and Mils looks to be beyond his best - selected for the All Black camp for his experience but the irony is that it may be he who finds himself on the bench because of his versatility. Expect to see Dagg back for the World Cup though and depending on Toeava's performances in the Tri-Nations, either him or Mils back starting.
As for the Stormers, McCaw is back. However, will he be fresh enough. They may start Todd for this game and bring the skipper on. In terms of the game - this is a real challenge. The Crusaders have the team but will they have the petrol left to get across the line. I suspect yes but by less than 10 points.
The final then on a possibility scale could be the 2 NZ sides but on a probability scale, more likely to be The Reds vs The Crusaders. And this is where I disagree with Robbie Deans who in my opinion did himself a disservice this week. He championed the Reds over his beloved Crusaders which seems a little spurious. Yes on paper the Reds have a great chance as mentioned above but the Crusaders have the experience, the team to win and the hurt of a city to do it. A lot will come down to the intensity of next weekends matches.
Which leads us to the new Super 15 which has been nothing short of laborious. Coupled with a 'false' format, and the intention to prolong the series next year, this means fans will be turning off in droves. Such a format is simply too boring, too long and the fact that teams have to play teams twice in their own conferences doesn't spice up anything. It provides a false scale and in some respects gives the Australian sides a hand up as the don't need to play all of the NZ sides. It's the equivalent to a warm flat coke.
The stooges that came up with the new structure over a couple of the sponsors product need to have a re- think and quickl. There's no need for a 'wait and see' approach - everyone knows that this format is a disaster. Go back to a shorter season, cut the conference rubbish and get every team to play each other. Sure that doesn't guarantee a team from every country in the top 6 and a bigger pay out out but lets face it, that's not a true reflection anyway, I'm bored just thinking about it.
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Henry's Successor
Funnily enough, not much has been said about Graham Henry's successor. And that is somewhat surprising given that Graham's reign is near finishing. Once he finishes he'll either be taking residence in a country other than NZ and/or keeping low, or having free lunches and being treated as royalty throughout NZ after winning the World Cup.
As any good businesses do when they know in advance key personnel are leaving, they start building a transition plan or start interviewing candidates early on. And in a competitive market, this especially needs to be done sooner rather than later. I suspect that the next 4 months require a heavy focus for the NZRFU and that is winning the World Cup in NZ's backyard - and so they should! As a NZ'er, I don't care about anything else this year. However, due diligence should be pursued as well in ensuring our next AB coach is secured and is of the highest standard.
So Who Are The Candidates?
Steve Hanson
Robbie Deans
Jamie Joseph
Todd Blackadder
Pat Lam
Warren Gatland
Of these, 2 can automatically be discarded - Pat Lam (still needs time and hasn't set the world on fire....yet) and Jamie Joseph who himself would declare he is too early in his coaching career to take on such a high profile role. Possibly in 4 years...
Into this pile in my opinion should also be Todd Blackadder. Blackadder like Joseph is early in his coaching career. A short stint in the UK and at Tasman, thrust into a Super coaching role and as per a previous blog, hasn't exactly done himself any favours by failing to get a team full of stars working at it's optimum. Having said that, and to be fair, the Crusaders are without a home ground and there have been a ton of injurys. Therefore, next year will be a better measure and that's what Blackadder needs to do - ply his trade a bit more and do some convincing. They may win the competition this year yet, which would be a good step.
That brings us to 3 and in my opinion, the only 3 candidates that should be seriously considered. All 3 are proven performers, all 3 have coached international sides. Here's the pluses and minuses:
Hanson
Positive: Set the tone with his coaching style at Wales - had Wales playing a very attractive and good brand of rugby which some would say helped them win the 6 Nations Grand Slam just after he left to join the All Blacks. Pushed the AB's in the 2003 World Cup. Has been with the AB's coming up 8 years but hasn't had the chance to be the conductor.
Negative: Doesn't relate to the media that well. In reality the most taxing factor is that he has been with the AB's for so long and (even if the AB's do win the World Cup) it may be time for a new approach.
Gatland
Positive: Fantastic CV - successful coach of Ireland, multiple championship winning coach of Wasps, Grand Slam winning coach of Wales. Came home, took one year to win the NPC. His coaching credentials cannot be disputed.
Negative: Has a contract with Wales but he'd break that for the ABs job I'm sure. Extending his Welsh contract is I suspect as much about ensuring his family have a future income in the UK. The NZRFU may frown on the fact he hasn't coached Super 15.
Deans
Positive: Another who's coaching credentials cannot be argued. Went for the role last time, got snubbed for Henry. A NZ (not Australian) and Canterbury legend. Plus does anyone seriously think Deans puts his hand on heart and sings the Dingo anthem with passion? This guy has All Black and Canterbury blood running through is veins - I severely doubt it. And he knows how to win - just not in Australia.
Negative: Suggestion he doesn't get on with Tew. Hasn't exactly done too much with Australia despite the media and ex rugby stars trumping for him. If only they looked at the facts - his win loss ratio isn't great, and he lost to Scotland for crying out loud. Also, the last time he was with the ABs he played a mighty hand in getting rid of the likes of Cullen, Merhtens, Oliver, Randell, Wilson - something that proved fatal in the 2003 World Cup.
If the NZRFU are serious about securing one of these 3 they need to start talking to them now. Deans is already being courted by Australia (even though McKenzie would seem a better fit), Gatland has a contract and Hanson is most likely considering his options too. Nabbing Deans or Gatland would be a master stroke and most people's hearts I suspect would say Deans deserves a shot.
The worry is that if the NZRFU don't get on with it, they may have to look at the Super 15 coaches and not one of them is good enough to be an All Black coach - which is a big worry for NZ Rugby in itself. As of today, I can't name one that is up to it. Hopefully that changes and a good start would be to start winning some Super 15 titles again.
As any good businesses do when they know in advance key personnel are leaving, they start building a transition plan or start interviewing candidates early on. And in a competitive market, this especially needs to be done sooner rather than later. I suspect that the next 4 months require a heavy focus for the NZRFU and that is winning the World Cup in NZ's backyard - and so they should! As a NZ'er, I don't care about anything else this year. However, due diligence should be pursued as well in ensuring our next AB coach is secured and is of the highest standard.
So Who Are The Candidates?
Steve Hanson
Robbie Deans
Jamie Joseph
Todd Blackadder
Pat Lam
Warren Gatland
Of these, 2 can automatically be discarded - Pat Lam (still needs time and hasn't set the world on fire....yet) and Jamie Joseph who himself would declare he is too early in his coaching career to take on such a high profile role. Possibly in 4 years...
Into this pile in my opinion should also be Todd Blackadder. Blackadder like Joseph is early in his coaching career. A short stint in the UK and at Tasman, thrust into a Super coaching role and as per a previous blog, hasn't exactly done himself any favours by failing to get a team full of stars working at it's optimum. Having said that, and to be fair, the Crusaders are without a home ground and there have been a ton of injurys. Therefore, next year will be a better measure and that's what Blackadder needs to do - ply his trade a bit more and do some convincing. They may win the competition this year yet, which would be a good step.
That brings us to 3 and in my opinion, the only 3 candidates that should be seriously considered. All 3 are proven performers, all 3 have coached international sides. Here's the pluses and minuses:
Hanson
Positive: Set the tone with his coaching style at Wales - had Wales playing a very attractive and good brand of rugby which some would say helped them win the 6 Nations Grand Slam just after he left to join the All Blacks. Pushed the AB's in the 2003 World Cup. Has been with the AB's coming up 8 years but hasn't had the chance to be the conductor.
Negative: Doesn't relate to the media that well. In reality the most taxing factor is that he has been with the AB's for so long and (even if the AB's do win the World Cup) it may be time for a new approach.
Gatland
Positive: Fantastic CV - successful coach of Ireland, multiple championship winning coach of Wasps, Grand Slam winning coach of Wales. Came home, took one year to win the NPC. His coaching credentials cannot be disputed.
Negative: Has a contract with Wales but he'd break that for the ABs job I'm sure. Extending his Welsh contract is I suspect as much about ensuring his family have a future income in the UK. The NZRFU may frown on the fact he hasn't coached Super 15.
Deans
Positive: Another who's coaching credentials cannot be argued. Went for the role last time, got snubbed for Henry. A NZ (not Australian) and Canterbury legend. Plus does anyone seriously think Deans puts his hand on heart and sings the Dingo anthem with passion? This guy has All Black and Canterbury blood running through is veins - I severely doubt it. And he knows how to win - just not in Australia.
Negative: Suggestion he doesn't get on with Tew. Hasn't exactly done too much with Australia despite the media and ex rugby stars trumping for him. If only they looked at the facts - his win loss ratio isn't great, and he lost to Scotland for crying out loud. Also, the last time he was with the ABs he played a mighty hand in getting rid of the likes of Cullen, Merhtens, Oliver, Randell, Wilson - something that proved fatal in the 2003 World Cup.
If the NZRFU are serious about securing one of these 3 they need to start talking to them now. Deans is already being courted by Australia (even though McKenzie would seem a better fit), Gatland has a contract and Hanson is most likely considering his options too. Nabbing Deans or Gatland would be a master stroke and most people's hearts I suspect would say Deans deserves a shot.
The worry is that if the NZRFU don't get on with it, they may have to look at the Super 15 coaches and not one of them is good enough to be an All Black coach - which is a big worry for NZ Rugby in itself. As of today, I can't name one that is up to it. Hopefully that changes and a good start would be to start winning some Super 15 titles again.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Big Gamers
As we get nearer to the end of the 'now' arduous Super 15 season, it's no doubt time to start looking at the All Black squad. However, rather than look at the team overall, I want to look at the 'Big Game' players within the squad - those who you know will rise to the challenge in the heat of the battle, those who you know can turn it on when it's needed the most, those who won't fret under pressure and lead the team through any uncertain moments and those who will carry and demonstrate the belief that the team can pull through to win a tight match - in world cup year this would seem most pertinent.
The Players
Ritchie McCaw heads the list. Captain fantastic has proved beyond unwavering doubt time and time again that he is not only the most important player in the team but also one of the finest leaders in world sport today (and arguably in history). If he wins the RWC he will surely cement his name among the greats of world sport
Dan Carter. Funnily enough, after signing his 4 year contract is showing some very fine form - form that looks close to the Carter that slayed the Lions in 2005. This can only be good for the ABs in that in 2007 he wasn't fully up to scratch.
Keven Mealamu. Without a doubt NZs no 1 hooker. Has proven in the last year that he is a cornerstone of the All Blacks and like McCaw, has seen 2 world cups - he now has the experience and mindset to lift when needed and his current play is nothing short of dynamic.
Kieran Read - the former counties man now the world's best no.8 is showing a real 'follow me' persona, a trait that may eventually make him the future AB captain.
Brad Thorn - doesn't back down to no-one. A proven winner with the Broncos, Queensland and Australian League - he knows what a big occasion is and he knows how to win a big occasion.
Ma Nonu - fairly contentious here but the truth is that Ma excels in the big games. Last year he proved it in the South African game but the most telling was the Welsh test. SBW (who to be fair is learning and on the rise)looked out of sorts in what can only be described as a messy game and one without structure - something Ma excels in. He came on and there was a huge difference straight away.
Cowan - tough, hard nosed, ferociously competitive - enough said.
Dagg - as Wayne Smith has commented, Dagg is built for the big stuff.
Whose Missing?
SBW - can't be classified here - he hasn't played a big one.
Mils - contentious yes, because Mils IS A big game player. However so is Zinzan Brooke. Would I put him in - no, because he's not up to it - just like Mils. A sad fact but we need to move on, the likes of Beale and O'Connor are running around this guy
The Wingers - we have many, Hosea, Toeava, Guildford, Jane, Siti etc but they are all too new
Centres - too close to pick. Both Kahui and Smith can do the job - it depends what the selectors do. I'd suggest they'll run SBW and Kahui together in July and see what happens....
What That Means for The Coaches
Obviously they need to pick the big game players - and they will. The question is, who will they pick to support. And this is where the 'quality measure' (think of it like a heat thermometer) needs to be applied. What that is is simply looking at a team of 15 and adding or subtracting a player and establishing what that does to the total quality mix of the team. Obviously a 'positive' effect is preferable but that is not always possible - especially when a player retires. A good example is Frank Bunce. When he retired, it had a negative effect on the total quality of the team (not just his position) and so the 'quality measure' was negative. It wasn't until Tana came along that this started to level out. On the other hand, the most preferable situation is when a 'newbee' ousts the incumbent because they are better - think Christina Cullen, think Read at no.8. Both of these players affected the 'quality measure' in a positive manner.
So what that means, is that yes, the big gamers will be picked but it's the 'quality measure' that is all important - the total make-up of the team. And what that means is that if new blood is introduced this year, it sure as hell has to be better and that I"ll leave to the selectors - too hard for me.
The Players
Ritchie McCaw heads the list. Captain fantastic has proved beyond unwavering doubt time and time again that he is not only the most important player in the team but also one of the finest leaders in world sport today (and arguably in history). If he wins the RWC he will surely cement his name among the greats of world sport
Dan Carter. Funnily enough, after signing his 4 year contract is showing some very fine form - form that looks close to the Carter that slayed the Lions in 2005. This can only be good for the ABs in that in 2007 he wasn't fully up to scratch.
Keven Mealamu. Without a doubt NZs no 1 hooker. Has proven in the last year that he is a cornerstone of the All Blacks and like McCaw, has seen 2 world cups - he now has the experience and mindset to lift when needed and his current play is nothing short of dynamic.
Kieran Read - the former counties man now the world's best no.8 is showing a real 'follow me' persona, a trait that may eventually make him the future AB captain.
Brad Thorn - doesn't back down to no-one. A proven winner with the Broncos, Queensland and Australian League - he knows what a big occasion is and he knows how to win a big occasion.
Ma Nonu - fairly contentious here but the truth is that Ma excels in the big games. Last year he proved it in the South African game but the most telling was the Welsh test. SBW (who to be fair is learning and on the rise)looked out of sorts in what can only be described as a messy game and one without structure - something Ma excels in. He came on and there was a huge difference straight away.
Cowan - tough, hard nosed, ferociously competitive - enough said.
Dagg - as Wayne Smith has commented, Dagg is built for the big stuff.
Whose Missing?
SBW - can't be classified here - he hasn't played a big one.
Mils - contentious yes, because Mils IS A big game player. However so is Zinzan Brooke. Would I put him in - no, because he's not up to it - just like Mils. A sad fact but we need to move on, the likes of Beale and O'Connor are running around this guy
The Wingers - we have many, Hosea, Toeava, Guildford, Jane, Siti etc but they are all too new
Centres - too close to pick. Both Kahui and Smith can do the job - it depends what the selectors do. I'd suggest they'll run SBW and Kahui together in July and see what happens....
What That Means for The Coaches
Obviously they need to pick the big game players - and they will. The question is, who will they pick to support. And this is where the 'quality measure' (think of it like a heat thermometer) needs to be applied. What that is is simply looking at a team of 15 and adding or subtracting a player and establishing what that does to the total quality mix of the team. Obviously a 'positive' effect is preferable but that is not always possible - especially when a player retires. A good example is Frank Bunce. When he retired, it had a negative effect on the total quality of the team (not just his position) and so the 'quality measure' was negative. It wasn't until Tana came along that this started to level out. On the other hand, the most preferable situation is when a 'newbee' ousts the incumbent because they are better - think Christina Cullen, think Read at no.8. Both of these players affected the 'quality measure' in a positive manner.
So what that means, is that yes, the big gamers will be picked but it's the 'quality measure' that is all important - the total make-up of the team. And what that means is that if new blood is introduced this year, it sure as hell has to be better and that I"ll leave to the selectors - too hard for me.
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