Henry's Successor

Funnily enough, not much has been said about Graham Henry's successor. And that is somewhat surprising given that Graham's reign is near finishing. Once he finishes he'll either be taking residence in a country other than NZ and/or keeping low,  or having free lunches and being treated as royalty throughout NZ after winning the World Cup.

As any good businesses do when they know in advance key personnel are leaving, they start building a transition plan or start interviewing candidates early on. And in a competitive market, this especially needs to be done sooner rather than later. I suspect that the next 4 months require a heavy focus for the NZRFU and that is winning the World Cup in NZ's backyard  - and so they should! As a NZ'er, I don't care about anything else this year. However, due diligence should be pursued as well in ensuring our next AB coach is secured and is of the highest standard.

So Who Are The Candidates?

Steve Hanson
Robbie Deans
Jamie Joseph
Todd Blackadder
Pat Lam
Warren Gatland

Of these, 2 can automatically be discarded - Pat Lam (still needs time and hasn't set the world on fire....yet) and Jamie Joseph who himself would declare he is too early in his coaching career to take on such a high profile role. Possibly in 4 years...

Into this pile in my opinion should also be Todd Blackadder. Blackadder like Joseph is early in his coaching career. A short stint in the UK and at Tasman, thrust into a Super coaching role and as per a previous blog, hasn't exactly done himself any favours by failing to get a team full of stars working at it's optimum. Having said that, and to be fair, the Crusaders are without a home ground and there have been a ton of injurys. Therefore, next year will be a better measure and that's what Blackadder needs to do - ply his trade a bit more and do some convincing. They may win the competition this year yet, which would be a good step.

That brings us to 3 and in my opinion, the only 3 candidates that should be seriously considered. All 3 are proven performers, all 3 have coached international sides. Here's the pluses and minuses:

Hanson

Positive: Set the tone with his coaching style at Wales - had Wales playing a very attractive and good brand of rugby which some would say helped them win the 6 Nations Grand Slam just after he left to join the All Blacks. Pushed the AB's in the 2003 World Cup. Has been with the AB's coming up 8 years but hasn't had the chance to be the conductor.

Negative: Doesn't relate to the media that well. In reality the most taxing factor is that he has been with the AB's for so long and (even if the AB's do win the World Cup) it may be time for a new approach.

Gatland

Positive: Fantastic CV - successful coach of Ireland, multiple championship winning coach of Wasps, Grand Slam winning coach of Wales. Came home, took one year to win the NPC. His coaching credentials cannot be disputed.

Negative: Has a contract with Wales but he'd break that for the ABs job I'm sure. Extending his Welsh contract is I suspect as much about ensuring his family have a future income in the UK. The NZRFU may frown on the fact he hasn't coached Super 15.

Deans

Positive: Another who's coaching credentials cannot be argued. Went for the role last time, got snubbed for Henry. A NZ (not Australian) and Canterbury legend. Plus does anyone seriously think Deans puts his hand on heart and sings the Dingo anthem with passion? This guy has All Black and Canterbury blood running through is veins - I severely doubt it. And he knows how to win - just not in Australia.

Negative: Suggestion he doesn't get on with Tew. Hasn't exactly done too much with Australia despite the media and ex rugby stars trumping for him. If only they looked at the facts - his win loss ratio isn't great, and he lost to Scotland for crying out loud. Also, the last time he was with the ABs he played a mighty hand in getting rid of the likes of Cullen, Merhtens, Oliver, Randell, Wilson - something that proved fatal in the 2003 World Cup.

If the NZRFU are serious about securing one of these 3 they need to start talking to them now. Deans is already being courted by Australia (even though McKenzie would seem a better fit), Gatland has a contract and Hanson is most likely considering his options too. Nabbing Deans or Gatland would be a master stroke and most people's hearts I suspect would say Deans deserves a shot.

The worry is that if the NZRFU don't get on with it, they may have to look at the Super 15 coaches and not one of them is good enough to be an All Black coach  - which is a big worry for NZ Rugby in itself. As of today, I can't name one that is up to it. Hopefully that changes and a good start would be to start winning some Super 15 titles again.